Our Investment Results
We have two core
investment strategies: CPGLI Dynamic Asset Allocation and CPGLI Global
Macro. Both are mainly based on
the same profits outlook but Global Macro takes more extreme positions.
Other factors are considered before an investment decision is made.
Since 2006, an
independent organization, has monitored and audited our investment results in real time.
See short results presentation
here.
The CPGLI
Dynamic Asset Allocation investment strategy delivered 97.3% over 7 years
from 2006 through 2012, while the S&P500 market index claimed only
12.4%.
The CPGLI Outlook
enhanced investment returns and reduced risks during the volatile market.
The CPGLI Dynamic Asset
Allocation investment strategy outperformed the S&P500 index during 2008
crash (reducing risk) and 2009,10,12 recovery (enhancing bull market returns)
|
Return % |
CPGLI
Dynamic Asset Allocation |
S&P500 |
|
CPGLI Dynamic Asset Allocation
7 years Returns |
|
Total 7y |
97.3 |
12.4 |
|
|
|
Annual 7y |
10.2 |
1.6 |
|
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
2012 |
27.4 |
13.4 |
|
|
2011 |
(15.5) |
0.0 |
|
|
2010 |
47.3 |
11.0 |
|
|
2009 |
79.5 |
19.7 |
|
|
2008 |
(24.8) |
(37.5) |
|
|
2007 |
(3.4) |
3.6 |
|
|
2006 |
(4.5) |
11.7 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Risk |
|
|
|
|
Sharp ratio |
0.19 |
0 |
|
|
Ulcer index |
17.48 |
1.22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actual independently audited performance
During the Global
Financial Crisis in 2008 the strategy, despite being leveraged,
registered a lesser fall (24.8%) than the ungeared S&P500 market index
which fell much further by (37.5%).
As a result, the
strategy’s investment risk was relatively reduced. The CPGLI strategy’s
Sharp Ratio and Ulcer Index are higher than that of S&P500, reflecting
the lower risk.
Since early 2009
through 2012 when CPGLI indicator issued “Up strong/Up”
profits growth outlook, the
strategies overweighted in equities and applied leverage. This
resulted in the significant outperformance.
The CPGLI Global Macro strategy started
in May 2009 at the beginning of the post-GFC bull market hence its 264.3%
4-year return is well above 62.5% market average.
Our profit outlook
consistently called for the strong recovery in profits. This gave us
confidence to maintain net long equities position during this extremely
volatile and full of uncertainties period. European debt crisis drag the
global markets sharply down in mid 2010, 2011 and 2012 but strong profits
growth in the USA - the biggest economy - managed to pull it up every time. The CPGLI Global Macro investment
strategy outperformed the S&P500 index and most hedge funds
|
Return % |
CPGLI Global Macro |
S&P 500 |
|
CPGLI Global Macro
4 years returns |
|
Total 4y |
264.3 |
62.5 |
|
|
|
Annual 4y |
42.2 |
14.1 |
|
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
2012 |
25.4 |
13.4 |
|
|
2011 |
(12.4) |
0.0 |
|
|
2010 |
52.8 |
12.8 |
|
|
2009 from May start |
117.1 |
27.1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Risk |
|
|
|
|
Sharp ratio |
0.55 |
0 |
|
|
Ulcer index |
0.35 |
0.22 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Actual independently audited performance
The 2007-2009 Global Financial
Crisis was a true test of the CPGLI outlook performance
› In
November 2007,
CPGLI indicator issued strong SELL SIGNAL at the market TOP.
› In
March 2009,
CPGLI indicator correctly picked the BOTTOM of the market issuing strong BUY
signal based on "Up strong" Outlook for V-shape recovery in corporate
profits.
› In
May 2009 it
correctly signaled beginning of the V-shape economic recovery.
› Then, for the next 4+ years in quarterly outlooks,
the CPGLI indicator correctly predicted strongly growing profits and rising
with it broad stock market.
› The indicator, however, did not predict the Lehman
Brothers bank collapse in September 2008.
› The Special Situation Notes in
April and
May 2009 correctly signaled a sharp turnaround in the financial stocks.
› In
November 2011
CPGLI Outlook predicted positive for stocks stabilization of the Eurozone.
|
